The Future of Cash Cycles to 2029

With the value of non-cash payments overtaking cash payment in major national economies, cash cycles worldwide are transforming rapidly.

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Product detail
Product type: Market report
Date of publication: 30 Mar 2019
Product format: Digital, Hard Copy
Number of tables: 75
  • This report examines this trend in detail, tracking the evolution of physical currency, cheques and electronic alternatives(credit/debit cards, contactless payment, mobile pay, etc) to strategically map the state of cash cycles through to 2029.
  • A series of scenarios for the adoption of non-cash alternatives are presented with detailed case studies of existingnational cash cycles – including data forecasts for current and future use of different payment options and the impact on demand for banknotes.
  • This is supported by analysis of attitudes to cash versus non-cash payment from all central actors in the cash cycle, and routes commercial organisations can take to remain profitable.

Description

Our exclusive content:

  • In-depth data on cash replacement by electronic payment mechanisms in key global  markets across 2018–29
  • Detailed insight into bank and consumer  attitudes to the cashless society; including  technical barriers to its deployment
  • Critical analysis of the evolution of different  non-cash payment solutions.

What methodology is used?

The Future of Cash Cycles to 2029 is based on extensive primary research of targeted interviews with key decision makers and specialists at central banks, technology suppliers, and leading industry consultants. This was supported by detailed secondary research on current cash and non-cash payments solutions and the  future of cash cycles.

This draws on a diverse range of official and private databases, supplier websites and brochures, technical articles, papers and conference proceedings. This was further cross referenced with existing Smithers Pira qualitative and quantitative data on the banknote and security printing industry and related  technologies to construct a series of detailed cash cycle adoption scenarios and forecasts through to 2029.

What will you discover?

  • The value and volume of current and future physical and different electronic payment in key regional markets with forecasts through to 2029
     
  • The impact of digitalisation of the cash cycle on organisations at all its stages – central banks;  public and private sector banknote printers;  commercial banks; cash-intransit companies; etc.
     
  • How evolution of the cash cycles will affect demand for printed banknotes and their design.

Who should buy this report?

  • Private-sector organisations active in the printing and  distribution of cash
  • Payment technology suppliers
  • Central banks, state printers and mints
  • Manufacturers of ATMs, cash handling and cash  processing equipment
  • Business strategy consultants and analysts.

Table of Contents

Executive summary
Introduction and methodology

  • Introduction
  • Objectives
  • Scope & definitions
    • Market segmentation
    • Data
  • Methodology
  • Glossary of terms
  • List of abbreviations
  • Exchange rates

Cash in an electronic world 2019–29

  • Introduction
  • The position of cash 2019
  • Consumer attitudes to cash – key national markets and regional differences
  • The advantages of cash
  • The evolution of non-cash payments
  • The advantages of non-cash payments
    • E-commerce
    • E-government and electronic payment
  • Evolving consumer behaviour
  • The limitations of cash payments
  • De-cashing strategies
    • IMF/G20
  • Better-than-cash alliance
  • Example of de-cashing via new payment systems
    • India
    • Kenya
    • Sweden
  • Other aspects influencing the status of cash
    • Legal considerations
    • Economic considerations
    • Eco-regulation for cash
    • Cash in response to economic crises

The future of cash vs electronic payment

  • Introduction
  • Technical evaluation of cash payment
    • Banknotes
    • Coins
    • Technical evaluation of e-payment methods
    • Cheques
    • Debit and credit cards
    • Direct debit
    • Online banking and instant payment
  • Mobile payment and banking apps
    • Apple pay
    • Google pay
    • Alipay
    • M-Pesa
    • Other
  • Tokens and virtual/crypto currencies
  • Evaluation criteria for best payment option
    • Cost
    • Convenience
    • Reliability
    • Security
    • Data protection
    • Liberty of choice
  • Evolution in the retail industry
    • E-commerce delivery
    • Cashback
    • E-grocery shopping
  • Evolution of banking and payment service infrastructure
    • IT eco-systems
    • Branch networks
  • Interface between cash and cashless payments
  • The future use of cash and noncash payments 2019–29

Cash in circulation 2019–29

  • The impact of cashless payment to cash in circulation
  • Evolutionary trends in cash in circulation
  • The influence on markets of central banks
  • Scenarios of cash in circulation
    • Cash cycle with fast electronic adoption
    • Cash cycle with moderate electronic adoption
    • Cash cycle with slow electronic adoption
  • Electronic payment: challenges for companies in the cash cycle 2019–29
  • Central banks
  • Mints and public-sector
  • banknote printers
  • Private-sector banknote
  • printers
  • Commercial banks
  • Cash-in-transit companies
  • ATM operators
  • Retailers
  • Other

The future of cash: implications for currency design 2019–29

  • Overview

The future of cash cycle: regional and national perspectives 2019–29

  • Overview
  • Western Europe
  • Eastern Europe
  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Asia
  • The Middle East
  • Africa
  • Australasia

Tables and Figures

  • Factors influencing cash-incirculation 2013–29
  • Categorisation of national cash markets and level of e-payment development
  • Cash payments for top 10 selected countries 2015–28 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Consumer attitudes to cash and e-payment option for selected national markets
  • Global market for e-payments, by geographic region 2013–29 (transactions)
  • Global market for e-payments, by geographic region 2013–29 (value, $ million)
  • Countries accepting USD and Euro as de facto currencies
  • Payment process diagram: Physical cash
  • Payment process diagram:Cheques
  • Payment process diagram: Debit and credit cards
  • Payment process diagram: Direct debit
  • Payment process diagram: Online banking/instantpayment
  • Payment process diagram: Mobile payment and banking apps
  • Payment process diagram: Tokens and virtual/crypto currencies
  • Physical cash payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Physical cash payments 2013– 29 (number of transactions)
  • Cheque payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million) payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Debit and credit cards payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Debit and credit cards payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Direct debit payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Direct debit payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Online banking/instant payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Online banking/instant payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Mobile payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Mobile payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Token/cryptocurrency payments 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Token/cryptocurrency payments 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Installed base of ATMs selected national market 2013–29 (units) 
  • Illustration of cash cycle 2019 
  • Rapid adoption e-payment national market schematic 2019
  • Rapid adoption e-payment national market schematic 2024
  • Rapid adoption e-payment national market schematic 2029
  • Moderate adoption e-payment national market schematic 2019
  • Moderate adoption e-payment national market schematic 2024
  • Moderate adoption e-payment national market schematic 2029
  • Slow adoption e-payment national market schematic 2019
  • Slow adoption e-payment national market schematic 2024
  • Slow adoption e-payment national market schematic 2029
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Central banks
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Mints/public-sector banknote printers
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Private-sector banknote printers
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Commercial banks
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Cash-in-transit companies
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: ATM operators
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Retailers
  • E-payment in the cash cycle technical and business challenges: Other
  • Key drivers in banknote design 2019-2029
  • Current and forecast banknote production volumes selected national markets, 2013–29 (million notes)
  • Current and forecast banknote production volumes selected national markets, 2013–29 (value, $ million/local currency million)
  • Global market for cash and other payments, by geographic region 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Global market for cash and other payments, by geographic region 2013–29 (Value of transactions)
  • Payment methods selected representative national markets, 2013–29 (number of transactions)
  • Payment methods selected representative national markets, 2013–29 (value of transactions, $ million/local currency million)
  • Western Europe market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Western Europe market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Eastern Europe market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Eastern Europe market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • North America market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • North America market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Latin America market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Latin America market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Asia market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Asia market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Middle East market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Middle East market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Africa market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Africa market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)
  • Australasia market for cash and other payments, by payment method (number of transactions)
  • Australasia market for cash and other payments, by payment method (value of transactions, $ million)