Packaging waste outpacing global capacity for sustainable management, according to Smithers

Total packaging waste generated worldwide in 2025 will reach a projected 434.5 million tonnes, according to new research from Smithers, the global authority on the packaging industry. This will increase to 525 million tonnes in 2030 – equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9%.

Of this volume 296.7 million tonnes will be recycled in 2025, or 68.3% of total packaging waste arising. This will increase to 365.2 million tonnes in 2030, or 69.5%, equivalent to 44kg per person on the planet in that year.

Recyclability and efficient collection of waste are pressing concerns across the packaging sector. How these priorities will reshape the selection, design, and use of packaging across the next five years is examined in expert detail in the latest market report from Smithers – The Impact of Recycling and Waste on the Packaging Industry to 2030.

Plastics remain central to the debate on packaging sustainability. Between 2000 and 2019, the volume of plastics waste doubled, with packaging accounting for around 40% of this. These formats have some of the lowest recycling rates – just 27.9% worldwide in 2024. This situation will improve over the next five years, with deployment of ‘super-clean’ mechanical recycling equipment for rigid polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE).

Recycling technology is less advanced for other polymers, especially flexibles, although recovery will be improved as more mono-polymer designs are introduced, and advanced (chemical) recycling lines are improved. For converters there are direct financial incentives including EPRs that legally require companies to pay for the management of waste they place on the market, and new mandates to use recycled resins in plastic packaging.

Fibre-based packaging – papers, cartonboard, corrugated and moulded – achieve a much higher recycling rate: 76.2% globally, rising to 88.3% in Europe, and 94.5% in the US. Yields from paper recovery streams are set to improve with the arrival of superior repulping machinery that improves de-inking and minimises the presence of other contaminants.

Glass packaging achieved a global recycling rate of 88.6% in 2024. Innovations include better colour sorting and screening of contaminants from mixed recycling streams.

Metal packaging, with its high intrinsic material value and established infrastructure, has a high recycling rate of 93.1% worldwide in 2024. Europe leads with a 95.5% recycling rate for metal packaging, while North America records the lowest regional rate at 89.4%. Maximising collection remains the principal challenge.

Across all packaging types recycling efficiency will be enhanced by superior sorting technologies, including superior washing and decontamination equipment and linking AI-algorithms to automated sorting equipment to improve the purity of recycled waste streams.

The Impact of Recycling and Waste on the Packaging Industry to 2030 is available to purchase now from Smithers priced $6,750 (€6.350, £5,475).