Smithers Pira debate at IPEX challenges the future of printing

28 June 2010

Will an Ipod for publishing kill printed media? Smithers Pira debate at IPEX suggests that this won't be the case

Panellists
Frank Romano, Professor Emeritus, Rochester Institute of Technology (Chair)
Stephen Waddington, Managing Director, Speed Communications
Sean Smyth, Consultant, Smithers Pira
Neil Falconer, Print Industry Strategy Consultant, Smithers Pira
Peter Houston, Editorial Director for Advanstar Communications in Europe

Publishers are hysterical about iPads, but it will be a while before they are widely available and used, according to the panellists at the Smithers Pira/IPEX Great Print Debate.

Publishers are currently hedging bets, but most are looking at trialling e-books within the next two years as they look at ways of reaching the market through Kindle, iPad or other e-readers.

At the Smithers Pira/IPEX Great Print Debate the consensus was that the iPad is another channel which will supplement rather than kill print.

The future of publishing lies along different paths. Technology will have a growing impact - the younger generation will have a lot of influence in relation to this, as they are very comfortable with screens. Although as Stephen Waddington pointed out, his two young daughters do not want to read a book on a PC - they want to be immersed in the book.

E-paper and the use of plastic substrates will take the weight of an e-book reader down under 200g - they are currently around 400g. Attempts to make e-paper from LCD have failed because of battery life, resolution and brightness. The Apple Newton failed, but it was ahead of its time - it was the first application to use the ARM chip, which is now widely used in smart phones. Battery life in e-books is currently 2 weeks - the aim is for this to reach around 2 months.

The portability of the iPad is a major issue. It is not an e-reader with a big screen which can fit in your pocket, which is what consumers are thought to want. This limitation means that iPads are not going to become a generalist device for reading. PDA/mobile phone screens are too small for people to read on, although it depends on the length of reading - it is not suitable for applications where more content is required. Another problem at the moment is that there is not one standard - there are currently 44 accepted e-book standards worldwide.

In 5 years time, the typical e-reader will have a standby battery life of 2 months, weight 150-200g will probably still be a glass based screen and will have wi-fi. Cost base depends on the application - there may be some 5" e-readers which are given away free of charge. Larger e-readers will be used mainly for professional applications and are expected to cost up to $500. A4 (-10%) is the largest size of e-reader at present.

Publishers want the ability to overcome some of the bottlenecks and financial investment involved in taking a book to market, but some are concerned that they will get their fingers burnt as they did with the internet. Publishers tried to get revenue back through adverts while offering free content - advertising rates went through the floor and the publishers got stung. The iTunes store model for e-books is popular because it guarantees income. The Spectator managed to use the internet as a marketing channel, increasing the number of hard copy sales as a result. This is because they only put news online - longer high value articles stayed in the printed magazine only.

In B2B publications, printed magazines are expected to cease to exist in the long term. 80% will be extinct in 5 years. Consumer publications will be more resilient - it is hard to imagine readers of Vogue wanting to change from the existing format. Printed magazines will be able to increase circulation by becoming more premium and increasing cover price to boost revenue.

As Arthur C. Clarke noted, the impact of technology is overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term.

To watch a video of the debate, click here